years to reach a 95 percent enrollment rate. As one looks at the 30-year period as a whole, then, the share of the enrollment increase that can be separated from demographic trends decreases. By considering only the short run, it is easy to underestimate the contribution of population growth to the rise in enrollments.
If fertility declines, the growth in enrollments and the demographic contribution to this growth are almost the same as in the high fertility projection if the ER goal is reached in 10 years. (See Table 9.) In the other, more realistic examples the impact of the decline in fertility is reflected in a smaller increase in pupil numbers, and a smaller contribution by population growth to this increase. For example, the ER goal can be reached in 30 years by trebling student numbers in the rapidly declining fertility projection, by quadrupling them when fertility declines moderately, or by raising them sixfold in the high fertility projection. Despite the much slower growth in enrollments required when fertility declines, the contribution of population growth to this increase remains considerable: in the example in which fertility declines moderately, the rise in ER alone can account for less than half the increase in student numbers, provided that the ER goal takes any longer than 20 years to reach.
Fertility and Teacher Requirements
The story is much the same for teacher requirements, although total requirements are boosted by the extra assumption that pupil/teacher ratios are lowered from 40 to 30. This means that in all cases a slightly higher proportion of the rise in teacher requirements than of the increase in enrollments can be isolated from demographic trends. If fertility remains high, less than half the increase in teacher requirements can be isolated from demographic trends if the ER and PTR goals take 20 years or longer to reach, and only a fifth can be isolated from demographic trends if these goals take 40 years to reach. The unlikelihood that the goals could be reached in less than 20 years is illustrated by the vast increase in the number of teachers required: a fourfold increase in 10 years if the goals are to be realized in a decade, and almost a sixfold increase in 20 years if they are to be reached in two decades.
THE CONTRIBUTION OF FERTILITY DECLINE TO EDUCATIONAL GOALS
It has been shown that most developing countries must view population growth as a major component of the increase in enrollments and teaching manpower implied by their educational targets, but the more practical consideration is the saving that could be effected by reducing the rate of population growth. The practical alternative is not "no population growth versus rapidls on the population projections, see (25, pp. 228-229). § Specifically, increases attributable to demographic trends were computed by holding ER constant and allowing population size to vary, and those attributable to ER increases